Runoff Election Set for Tomorrow in HD 29

Will the voters in Texas State House District 29 ever get a break?

Last November, during the General Elections, voters were given the choice between a living breathing young MD full of vision and sense of duty, and a corpse. They voted for the corpse. The corpse’s campaign committee, run by State Rep. Dennis Bonnen (R-Angleton), saw no real reason to inform voters of the death of the Republican incumbent, Glenda Dawson, even as they sent mailers out to voters with the smiling face of Rep. Dawson plastered on them.

So because the voters were going to be represented in the state house by someone who was no longer able to cast a vote, because she died, Rick Perry hemmed and hawed about when, just when, should they have a Special Election? Well, didn’t he have to wait for the election to be certified? That’s the ticket.

So, hey, why not have a special election 6 days before Christmas? Well, I guess it would have been a good idea if they moved the polling locations to the malls, but no. They didn’t As a matter of fact, in Matagorda County, where Dr. DiNovo did better than his Republican rival, Randy Weber, there was one early voting location. One, in the entire county.

Voter turnout in the special election just topped 4 percent. That’s a miserable showing. A 7 percent showing is more the norm for a special election. The week before, Ciro Rodriquez beat out Henry Bonilla for CD 23, and the turnout was an impressive 17%. Tammy, DiNovo’s campaign manager, bemoaned the turnout. It was a unique chance and they stayed home or went to the malls.

And even then, no one in the field of four candidates got a majority of the vote. I mentioned in a previous post that Dr. DiNovo has endorsed his Republican opponent, Randy Weber. John Gorman, his other opponent did the same. They may all have disagreed with each other on the campaign trail, but there was one thing that they could all agree on, and that is Mike O’Day is the wrong one to go to the state house.

So Rick Perry again had to decide on a day to hold the special runoff election, waited for the official certification, screwed up and didn’t get the day named until it was too late leaving HD 29 voters without a voice in the state house during the first two weeks of the 110th Legislature. So he finally named it, it’s tomorrow, January 16th.

The day an ice storm is expected to hit the area.

A dead candidate, Jesus’ birthday, Perry, and now an ice storm.

Incredible.

Anyone But O’Day: DiNovo Endorses Randy Weber for State Representative in the Texas HD 29 Runoff

In a previous posting I mentioned that there are only 149 filled Texas State House seats, and that Anyone But Craddick candidates need only 75, not 76 votes to win the speakership. Well, they have Dr. Anthony DiNovo to thank for that. Because he ran an aggressive campaign in a Republican-dominated district in a low voter turnout special election, Mike O’Day did not win a majority, and was forced into a runoff election in January. On January 1st, Rick Perry signed the Special Runoff Election Proclamation. The election will be held on Tuesday, January 16th, 2007. A week after the speaker vote.

Thanks for the huge favor, Dr. DiNovo! One less vote for Craddick!

Now he’s doing another great thing for the voters of HD 29. He is endorsing Randy Weber, one of his Republican opponents in the special election.

Tammy, his campaign manager, was good enough to send me his press release, but it’s now up on his website. Here it is below (but do read the stuff at the bottom of the quoted text, you won't be disappointed):

I hope everyone has had a Good Christmas season. My thirteen months of campaigning is over, and though I didn’t do as well as I had ultimately hoped, there are two candidates remaining and the election will continue.

I ran this race to see what an intelligent person only motivated by civic pride could do. I am proud that I stepped up to do what so many people have thought about, but never dared to do themselves. Thanks to everyone that believed in me, but whether I would ever do this again is another question!

Now as someone who has now been through the ringer, I have gotten an insiders view of Brazoria/Matagorda politics. And I have learned that a voter in this district should look closely at why a candidate is running. There is a reason that both Gorman and myself are firmly behind Weber in the run-off. We have seen how the other candidates behave, know what they really think, and who is backing them and why.

I have to say, of the two remaining candidates; unequivocally Weber is the real deal.

Weber has been active at the local level as an election worker, election judge and trying to make a difference for years & years. O’Day on the other hand, who has never been in that part of the elective process has (as of December 11th,) thrown
$91,000.00 at this race. Heaven only knows what he has spent since then. In my opinion, he is trying to buy the election. Why would a rich developer work at a thankless job that makes 7 thousand dollars a year? I have serious doubt he will be able to separate his business interests from the public’s interest.

Some people might think a politician is good when he promises everything to everybody. I don’t want someone who is compromised before they ever make their first day in office. I want someone who is fighting for us. Someone who might actually excite people to get taxes lower and common sense reforms in social issues. I want Randy Weber to represent me because he is the one left running who actually intends to do what he is talking about.

I believe Webber will go to Austin to work for the people of this community. In the end, good government can only come from good people in office. And ultimately that is what we all want: good government.

Thank you and God bless you always. I will get back to my work. I probably make a better doctor than a State Rep anyway!

Anthony A. DiNovo, M.D.

Nice, huh?

Want to know why Dr. DiNovo is supporting a Republican? Because he simply cannot abide Mike O’Day’s politics and attitudes. O'Day is a political disaster that will come home to roost in HD 29 like a bad dream. Do you know that there is an O’Day Road in Pearland? An O’Day Hardware? It was just down the street from the DiNovo HQ. Mike O’Day is the owner of a water well drilling company and a local property developer. Honestly Pearland is almost like Potterville.

But the best reason that DiNovo, and his Republican opponent are both endorsing Randy Webber is yet to come.

I have it on good authority that O’Day pressed too hard on election night, and got on the wrong side of one of his Republican opponents, John Gorman, who finished in 4th place.

The story goes like this:

It was shortly after all returns were reported on Election night. John Gorman called Randy Weber to congratulate him on making it in the run-off. He then called Mike O'Day and did the same. During that call, O'Day invited Gorman over to their celebration party. So he went. (Jeez, the guy has guts). But just as soon as he got a drink, O'Day walked over and ripped into Gorman. It was reported that O’Day began poking at Gorman’s chest and in his face. He said that Gorman had cost him the election and that everyone there (at the party) was loyal to him and that if Gorman “wanted an ‘IN’ that he would have to ‘feel the love’ and ‘prove’ that he was loyal.”

No, I am not making this up. Here we have Mike O’Day, taking a page from Tom Craddick’s book, and bullying his opponent. And the man cannot even add. Gorman took 116 votes from O'Day (or maybe even from Weber!). 1.58% of the vote.

At that point Gorman thanked him for the drink and left.

So all three candidates who opposed O’Day in the election, oppose him in the runoff election.

And a Republican and a Democrat, have both endorsed Randy Weber. And by my providing the link to his website, I heartily endorse this Republican, also.

Can Weber pull it off against a well-funded Mr.Potter-esque opponent? Well I’ll tell you, if the same voters show up on the 16th of January that showed up on the 19th of December, and vote their candidates endorsements, Weber wins by 306 votes. But you know me, I am pessimistic. I still had my doubts before the endorsements, had still more doubts after, but now that Tammy is working on Randy Weber’s campaign, I think O’Day is in deep, deep trouble. It's going to take more than bullying and Developer Dollars to get him elected. He doesn't know what's coming at him, I can assure you.

Tammy, get some sleep!

HD 29 Election: The Agony And The Ecstacy

Well, let’s cut to the chase: Dr. DiNovo did not win the special election.

He came in third in a field of four candidates. No one achieved a 50% plus 1 majority so the 29th Texas House District is in for ANOTHER election. This time to let the voters decide which of the two Republicans they want to represent them in Austin.

So, all you voters in Brazoria and Matagorda Counties, you get to choose between two conservative Republicans. It all boils down to a beauty pageant now, because the ideological choice is now nonexistent.

Kind of reminds me of the Soviet Union in its heyday.

Here are the final numbers:

Did you catch that? All that had to happen in this race was for 400 more Democrats to come out and vote for Anthony DiNovo.

400.

Then, instead of a Soviet-style beauty pageant, we would have an American-style knock down drag out ideology-based runoff election with voters getting a true choice.

But wait, the fun stuff is still to come.

Voter turnout in special elections, especially when the election is competing with voter time at the mall with their Holiday shopping errands is low. As I mentioned previously, voter turnout in the CD-23 election that got a Democrat elected by 10 percentage points was a whopping 18% (or nearly so). That is more than double what is usually expected in a special election where voters are made to come and decide one race for one office. Typically special elections bring in 7-8% of the electorate.

Statistic #1: What was the voter turnout in this HD-29 race?

4.093204%

That’s right, 4 percent of the district’s 178,833 registered voters decided who would represent the other 96% of them. Or at least, in this case, decided to reduce this race to a choice between Miss Red and Miss Cerise.

Tammy was dumfounded when I pointed it out to her. 4 Percent? Her 180 IQ told her that everything had been done correctly. Voters were contacted in a massive GOTV effort that had local Democratic activists shaking their heads in wonder. I can personally attest to this. I sat at the far end of a table calling voters in Brazoria Precinct 53, and heard muse call the same voters in Matagorda County that I called on Sunday – the ones who hadn’t voted yet. Democratic voters were contacted. They simply passed.

Statistic #2: How much did each vote cost?

O’Day. O’Day inherited Glenda Dawson’s warchest. Don’t ask me how or why, he just did. His initial influx of $100,122.95 was augmented by a $50,000 personal loan. Total: $150,122.95. If 80% was spent on this campaign ($120,098.36) his total costs were $34.24 per vote. Not bad. That beats a 50 dollar whore by $15.76. Do you know what I truly like about this? The Dawson campaign money did not have to go to O'Day's campaign. It could have gone anywhere. It could have gone to Austin to grease the wheels of the most dangerous voucher bill of all. But it didn't. That money stayed in the district to fight off a Democratic assault on the seat. An unsung victory, I think.

Weber: Weber had $14,897.58 to spend. Assuming he spent all of it his voters were bought for a mere $7.25 apiece. Well, that got him in the runoff. But still, that’s a lot of Blockbuster movie rentals.

Gorman: I’ve tried and tried and you can’t divide zero into anything. It’s a mathematical impossibility. So, in the parlance of a TI-83 calculator, Gorman’s voter cost is “Undefined”.

DiNovo: $10.84 per voter. You have to wonder what the cost would have been if the average Democratic voter weren’t trying to play “hard to get” this time around. As in hard to get off of their apathetic behinds.


Analysis and Conclusions

Know what I think? Three things happened. 1) Democratic voters in this area are so used to being beaten that they could not fathom being able to elect a Democrat when the odds were heavily in their favor if only they would act. 2) Democratic voters are so used to being presented a slate of Republican candidates to vote for that they simply pass. Source? Me. When I talked to human beings on the phone, they were always amazed that one of the candidates running was a Democrat. 3) Rick Perry – why not schedule a special election 6 days before Christmas? Why not use the Lord’s birthday as the ultimate voter suppression tool?

We three bloggers, Karl-Thomas, muse, and moi, were invited to the after-the-polls-close-dinner-and-election-watch. muse and KT were busy banging away on their laptops (I am a dinosaur, and blog on a desktop). The event was nice, cordial, and accented in laughter. I got to meet Anthony DiNovo’s wife, Bonnie, and their adorable children (Oh Krishna, Adele is such a cutie - Tammy is claiming her as payment).

And visit with the doctor himself.

I was there when Dr. DiNovo switched off his cell phone when the final results came in, and I was there when he finally turned it back on to talk to a KTRH reporter. He really didn’t want to talk and didn’t do an interview. One will come eventually, but for now he remains on low boil.

What does one do in the face of such Democratic voter apathy? Well I was privileged enough to see for myself having never personally experienced it: Black humor, irony, and wild shifts in decisions on the “what-ifs” that follow an indecisive election (as in what if Weber approaches Dr. DiNovo for an endorsement?).

And then finally this. What will happen tomorrow? Tomorrow Anthony DiNovo will go back to work treating patients. He is going to be feeling bad, especially for the people he feels he let down when he didn’t win.

And then it’s Christmas. And he won’t feel so bad. As a matter of fact, things are going to be pretty much okey-dokey.

Know why?

Because Republicans are going to be spending money trying to beat each other at the polls. Money that may have gone to beating Democrats.

And Bonnie has her husband back.

Beginning Again: DiNovo For HD 29 Texas State Representative

No, I’m not going to stop blogging on this campaign. For one thing, it’s the hottest thing in Texas politics at this moment. For another, the man is someone we need in Austin.

Now.

I was musing about his name, DiNovo. It’s Italian. But the name extends from Latin, the ancient roots of the Italian language. De Novo. De Novo has many meanings in our language. In law, where I first knew of its use, it simply means “new”. Trial De Novo means New Trial. But like all translations, it loses something in it. De Novo, in its ancient form and use means “New Beginning”.

And that is what this campaign is. A new beginning for the people of Brazoria and Matagorda Counties. Tammy, his campaign manager, told me why she is working so hard to get this man elected. Here we have a fairly new on the scene MD. He has a modest clinic in a strip mall in Pearland, Texas. While others in his position are working to build their businesses, clawing and scraping for medibucks, Dr. DiNovo makes it his business to treat patients who are under-insured or uninsured. He does this because he wants to serve the people. Even to the extent that when given an opportunity to speak at a candidates' forum earlier this week, Dr. DiNovo couldn't attend. He was on his way to the forum when he got called back to the clinic. It's here.

Oh, man, in this day and age, this is very much a New Beginning.

So that’s why, after attending a Fort Bend Democrats holiday lunch and business meeting at Farhan Shamsi’s place in Katy, I got in my environment-friendly gasoline-efficient mode of transport and got my behind down to Pearland for a Get Out The Vote session with a call list.

muse said that the event would be attended by bloggers, but I was the only one there at the time. But I got there late for the last shift so there you go. They gave me a Matagorda County list and I dug in. Somewhere in there I had to stop and get some water, and I was talking to the campaign workers about how it was going.

“Everyday there is excitement. Something new happens”

“Today it was the block walkers. There were two block walkers walking a precinct and they were stopped by the Pearland Police.” “They were told that they could not do this.”

Apparently someone called the Pearland PD and reported suspicious characters out walking in the neighborhoods. They were carrying clipboards, had campaign buttons and pocketsful of campaign literature.

But they were suspicious, nevertheless.

In advance of the campaign, Tammy actually contacted the Pearland city government and cleared the block walking with them. Now, I, as a California transplant, have no idea why that would be necessary, but sometimes I am hopelessly naïve about how Freedom of Speech and Assembly is handled in Texas. So Tammy had it covered, but the campaign workers were having trouble getting in contact with the Pearland Police Department on this issue.

No one answering? Guess there is no crime in Pearland on Saturday.

Maybe they were all at the Flea Market?


The Get Out The Vote effort continues through Tuesday evening. Go out and buy the cheapest gasoline you can find ($2.07 for me, today) and get your patooties down to Pearland. We can do this. Working together, we Democrats can get this one done.

The map to the the place is here. Take the Sam Houston Tollway south to the State Highway 35 offramp. Turn south and proceed to Broadway. Turn left at the signal, cross the tracks and the DiNovo HQ is past the first light after the tracks on the right.

Say "Hi" to Brian.

And tell Tammy to get some sleep someday.

Calling For Dr. DiNovo

What? Yet another blog on the DiNovo campaign?

Hey, guys, it’s the only game in town.

I just finished my call list. I called for 20 minutes every evening around the time people are getting home from work but before dinner. I saw on Texas Kos that muse stopped by the HQ in Pearland today and got a list. Had I known muse was going I would have asked for another list. Now all I have to do is grade papers and type this thing that hardly anyone reads anymore.

Overall, the timing was pretty good. Calling at this time, I talked to maybe 50% more human voices. Response varied, but in general it was positive.

Tonight I was glad that I had only a few more calls to make because one guy wanted to talk. I was actually calling his daughter, but he answered. He said he was 77 years old and couldn’t fathom why ANYone would vote for a Republican.

“It’s ridiculous,” he said. “It’s insane.” “My great-granddaughter is 4 years old but she already has a $28,000 debt to pay!”

It’s not too late to lend a hand. They have 3 lines at the HQ at 3536 E. Broadway in Pearland. Just down the street at the Family Clinic, they have 6 phone lines and a plush setup for phone banking on the weekends. The clinic is at Pearland Plaza, 3223 E. Broadway Pearland.

They have set up calling shifts at the clinic: 10:00-12:00, 12:00-2:00 and 4:00-6:00

They are also block walking daily out of the HQ.

If Ciro’s win against a well-funded incumbent reveals anything, it’s that this is a winnable election if we can get out the base. Special elections have low voter turnouts (sometimes) and it usually favors an incumbent. Not this time. There is no incumbent. The leading opponent, Michael O’Day, has 5 times the resources as DiNovo, but has already spent his wad on campaign signs which litter the district.

He’s trying to buy the election.

And guys, if you need an additional reason to gas up and go on down to Pearland, here it is. Both Dr. DiNovo and his partner, Dr. Orsak, were resident doctors at (are you ready for this?) Dr. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs’ office. She was their direct supervisor for months.

Isn’t that just a scream?

Dr. Anthony DiNovo For Texas HD 29 Representative: Too Good To Be True

I answered the call to help get out the vote in Pearland today. OK, you’re right, I’ve been having post election withdrawal pains and needed a quick fix. I learned a lot today about our fellow Democrats to the south.

Before, I was woefully ignorant.

First, this is just about as one-off a race as Nick Lampson’s.

The incumbent in HD 29 is (was) Glenda Dawson. She passed away this past summer. I imagine her state representative website is still up out of respect. Apparently she was well-liked in the district. So well liked that when it came time to re-elect her on November 7th, she won hands down. It was an issue in the election that her campaign was successful in sending out campaign flyers to households “touting her record” without mentioning the fact that she was indeed deceased.

So since the seat was won by a corpse, a well-liked corpse at that, a special election had to be called by Rick Perry.

Why not replace her on the ballot? They were chomping at the bit to replace Tom DeLay on the ballot until it became clear that in doing so, they would violate the US Constitution. But in this case it was cut and dried. They had a deceased candidate. No problem replacing her on the ballot, right? Chapter 145 of the Texas Election Code was written to cover this specific set of circumstances. Ah, but a re-read of the law reveals the dilemma: the candidate must die at least 74 days before Election Day. Representative Dawson died after a short illness, after the August 25th deadline (sorry, unintentional pun).

This presents a very uncomfortable problem to Republicans. Here we had the Democratic opponent, Dr. Anthony DiNovo, who was expected to poll in the 20% range, actually garner 40% of the vote in November. Perry called a special election to fill the HD 29 seat and not one, and not two, but three Republican opponents signed up to oppose our one Democratic candidate in the special election.

They split the Republican vote. What a colossal error.

So it’s a no-brainer here. The one who gets out the base vote, the voters who voted in November, is the one who wins the election. Dr. DiNovo has an excellent chance. The special election, being held during the holiday season, is expected to draw less than 10% of the voters to the polls. My guess is in the 4 to 5% range, the same as a hotly contested school board election.

So we have a real opportunity here. If you want to help out, they really could use your support. At this point, it’s helping to get out the vote. Calling the base and getting them to the polls. My friend muse has the details here on where you can go to help. I can personally attest that their call lists are first class. You talk to Democrats, and it’s fun to do that, especially if you can let them know that there is a special election – some don’t know – and that there is a Democrat running (and they don’t know that either).

Last and best. muse and I had a chance to talk at length with the DiNovo campaign manager, a singular young woman with very impressive skills. Her anecdotal information on Dr. Anthony Dinovo made both muse and I very happy that we had shown up to help in the campaign. Simply stated, Dr. Anthony DiNovo is a good and decent man whose life’s goal is to help people who would not otherwise be helped. This is the sort we need in Austin. I can think of no better replacement for a good and decent Republican representative, Glenda Dawson, than a good and decent Democratic state representative, Dr. Anthony DiNovo.

District 29 deserves nothing less.