Election Day 2010: It’s the Turnout, Stupid

Say what you will about how crazy the GOP has begun, how the Teabaggers have poisoned the well for a Republican comeback. In an age where the decibel level has gone off the charts in terms of the noise you find in the media, in an age of high unemployment, rampant disinformation and ignorance, in an age where people feel entitled to their own opinions and their own facts, it is all about voter turnout.

Like no other time, including 2008, It’s the Turnout, Stupid.

In Nevada, Harry Reid is taking heart over the heavy early vote turnout that seems to favor the Democratic candidates. Nevada is also a strong union state and the unions are good at getting their members to the polls. But without that, and that alone, not only will Nevada deprive itself of a Senate Majority leader, someone who can bring the bacon home to his very unpopulous state way out of proportion to their numbers, but saddle itself with a senator whose antics and statements can only be associated with borderline lunacy and over-the-top racist.

In Florida, there is a recent flap over Charlie Crist’s claims that Kendrick Meek was approached by Bill Clinton and asked to step aside so Crist could get some Democratic votes and defeat uberconservative Republican candidate Marco Rubio. One school of thought has it that black voters would be upset with what would appear to be Democratic party leadership asking a black Democrat to step aside for a white Republican – and not vote. The other school of thought, largely fueled by early vote turnout in black neighborhoods has it that black voters are so upset about this that they will turn out in record numbers to vote for Meek, and also for Alex Sink who is in a neck-and-neck race for Florida governor.

In New Hampshire there is another tack being taken. An interesting strategy that maybe harkens to the fact that New Hampshire Democrats are really an odd bunch. Apparently the Democratic turnout is so high that Ray Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party.feels that his comfort zone has been reached and has actually told voters this in an email today:

“But the reason I am writing, is to tell you that I was just briefed on the voter turnout so far and there is good news! Democrats are turning out. We need just a few more Democrats to go to the polls and we will able to win seats that the pundits say we can't! Its that close!”

To which I say, I hope Buckley’s right. I hope not one Republican gets elected who wouldn’t have because some New Hampshire voters decided to sit this one out this year because the chairman thought it was won.

But Buckley is a party chair so he should know this from first principles: It’s the Turnout, Stupid.

From Without: US Polarization Ramps Up

It’s a big primary day in Election 2010 with primaries in four states, including a special election in Pennsylvania, a battleground state. I was perusing the opinions of those within and without the US today and find I have to agree with the “without” point of view, courtesy of the Manchester Guardian.

“The polarisation of US politics is likely to gather pace tomorrow in a host of contests across the country in which Republican and Democratic establishment candidates face being thrown out, victims of a wave of populist hostility towards Washington”

Gee, no kidding.

In Arkansas Conservidem Blanche Lincoln faces a fierce come from behind challenge by Lt. Governor Bill Halter, a darling of the Netroots, who has widespread financial support from the left. The left is outraged at Lincoln’s behavior during the healthcare debate – including the self-serving “Louisiana Purchase” where Lincoln traded her vote for special treatment of Louisianans. Word is that there has been a record turnout in the early vote in Arkansas, making me think that the polls may have it wrong. A heavy turnout is sure to favor Halter, giving him a boost to push the race to a runoff if not an outright win tonight.

Pennsylvania, I think, will exchange right of center Arlen Specter for left of center Joe Sestak. Specter, who couldn’t win against Teabagger Pat Toomey to save his soul, switched parties in midstream, giving Sestak good reason to run as the “real Democrat.” Truth to tell, Specter is only a fair-weather friend to Democrats. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who has verbally supported Specter in the past, has characterized Specter’s support this way: “Arlen is always with us except when we need him.”

Excitement is high in Pennsylvania, although they have had rain today and that has always kept the numbers down. Although like Arkansas, I see this as a boost to Sestak’s chances rather than Specter’s

So the way it is shaping up, Pennsylvania will have true choice in November, between a rightwing Teabagger who has the ultra conservative Liberty First PAC bankrolling him, and former Vice-Admiral Joe Sestak, the highest-ranked retired military officer to run for office since forever.

The Pennsylvania special election in PA-12 to fill John Murtha's unexpired term remains at high interest. Democrat Mark Critz and Republican Tim Burns have squared off at each other over Cap and Trade, both of which say they oppose because of the importance of coal in the district. Burns says Critz is being disingenuous because he was on John Murtha's staff, and actually supported the bill. FiveThirtyEight.com has Burns in the lead by one point so I guess we'll have to wait until the bitter end to see how CD-12 will go.

Then we have Kentucky, which in its Republican Senate race is poised to dump party favorite Trey Greyson for Rand Paul, another darling of the Tea Party movement. Paul is going to win that one, but who he will run against in November is still up for grabs. The race is between Daniel Mongiardo and Arkansas (Arkansas?) Attorney General Jack Conway. Conway is better-financed and has spent his way up to a stalemate in the polls against Mongiardo, who has better name-recognition, he having almost beat retiring Senator Jim Bunning in 2004.

I would love to see an out-and-out Teabagger run against either of these guys.

The only safe bet, I guess is Oregon, which will easily tonight renominate, and then re-elect its US Senator, Ron Wyden, in November. The challenge in Oregon, I am told, is to remind people that there is a primary today.

So, yes, the Guardian has it exact. As we slowly grind down to November, Americans are choosing up sides that are more to the extremes of each party, with Republicans splitting their votes between rightwing Teabaggers and mainstream Republicans, and Democrats also doing their share to shift leftward.

I guess the only problem with all of this is that it leaves the unaligned, the Independent Voter, aka those who don’t know what they’re about, out in the cold.

To whom I have to say this: time now to choose sides.

And to choose wisely.

Election Day Is Here Again

It’s the first Tuesday in November and that means it’s Election Day. Honestly I can’t for the life of me figure out why they can’t hold these things on weekends as they do in other civilized countries.

And uncivilized ones, to boot.

Here in Texas, statewide propositions are on the ballot in most areas. Then there is the odd municipal election of MUD District election. The Houston city elections are of most interest to me because I live near it, and it’s like what Canadians say about their interest in American elections. Heck yes, they are interested, much as one would be interested in what the sleeping elephant that they share a bed with does during its REM stage.

Reported low voter turnouts are going to throw a monkey wrench into the works, it seems. Houston Mayoral Election poll results show a 4 point difference between the leader (Brown) and the trailer (Locke) – Morales is not even an issue. In fact, Morales made it his key issue that he is the only Republican running in the race, something that leaves me a little cold considering that the race is nonpartisan – or was, anyway.

With a low voter turnout, though, anything can happen (except for Roy Morales).

I am also interested in two of the races out East, in New York’s CD-23 special, and in New Jersey’s gubernatorial. Virginia, however, is doing what Virginia does after any presidential election it has had in 32 years – shifting the opposite way. It will elect a Republican governor after giving all of its electoral votes to Obama last year.

No news there.

GOTV efforts will determine who is governor of New Jersey, the race is that close. John Corzine and his Republican opponent are in a dead heat, it seems.

And who wins in New York’s CD 23 depends on how many crazies the right can get out to vote for a guy who has no knowledge of local issues or the district in general. This is delicious to the extreme. The GOP have thrown their own candidate under the bus and opted for a third party teabagger who campaigns against Republicans whenever he can.

How embarrassing is that?

Whoever wins, I think nothing is proved. This is an off-off year election at a time when issues have not been settled yet. Things are still evolving.

Or if you are a Republican, I think the word is “devolving.”

Endgame: A Day at the Fort Bend Democrats Headquarters

And it finally came.

Election Day. November 4th 2008.

The day started slow enough, but over time more and more volunteers came in to help get out the vote. We had people driving the elderly and disabled to the polls. We had people calling voters who hadn’t voted in the early voting.

We had people analyzing data and looking for areas of opportunity.

We had lawyers standing by to help voters who were having trouble getting in to cast their ballot.

We had people making more campaign buttons to meet the high demand.

We had people showing voters who came in where they were supposed to vote.

We had people coming in all day to buy campaign memorabilia.

And then, all of a sudden it was 6:30 and the calling stopped.

And at 7:00 the polls closed.

And the election night victory party crowd started to stream in. People came in and out all night so an accurate head count is impossible, but the estimate is that more than a hundred and fifty celebrants crossed our front entrance last night.

Every once in awhile, especially at the top of the hour, the election watchers would burst into spontaneous applause as another state’s projected vote totals went into Barack Obama’s column. The crowd grew more agitated as the electoral vote surpassed 100, then hit 200, then pegged at 207 where it stayed.

Then at 10:01 CST the polls closed on the west coast and vote projections took Barack Obama’s lead to 284. At that point the crowd erupted in a deafening roar.

And the champagne came out.

And the exuberant youth among us went outside to wave Obama signs at passing motorists, screaming and yelling, and getting gleeful honks from many of these cars.

Lots of self-congratulation went on. Lots of feelings of gladness and relief.

And we had one more victory. Richard Morrison won his race to become County Commissioner. He won by 802 votes. It was announced, and Richard responded with a salute to the crowd.

Then the crowd thinned as we waited to hear Obama’s speech to a crowd at his Chicago victory party. Then Barack Obama gave his memorable speech to the throng in front of him, and to millions around the world.

This last one is of Richard Morrison taken during Obama’s speech. It looks like he is watching the television intently, but in actual fact I was standing between him and the TV. No, that is a shot of Richard’s 21 foot stare in a 20 foot room.

It is a very candid shot of a successful candidate in a close political race who is now in deep thought as he moves to the next step.

Making a difference in Fort Bend County