Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Sixty-One Thirty-Eight

What have those two numbers in common with Texas Senate District 17?

In 2006, across the vote in Texas Senate District 17, Kay Bailey Hutchison beat Barbara Ann Radofsky by a vote of 86,533 to 54,505. Or 61.4% to 38.6%.

That’s the best comparison you can do to today’s special election vote in SD 17 because in the same year, Kyle Janek, incumbent state senator, ran against an independent.

In today’s special election vote, with 91% of the total vote in, Chris Bell has closed that 61-38 gap to 57.2% to 42.8%. At this point it looks like a deficit that cannot be made up.

Now, how are we to treat this data?

First, absent any demographic movement, Chris Bell’s campaign succeeded in scaring up more Democratic voters in this special election than normally represent the district.

But what if the demographics are representative in the voter appearance data? Doesn’t that mean that SD 17 has experienced a 5% shift toward the party of the light? In two short years?

Either way, this is good news. Even in the face of almost certain defeat, Chris Bell has again sounded the first peal of the death knell of Republicanism in SD 17. Voters in SD 17 may have traded an orange for a rotten apple in this special election, but the vote holds promise for the future.

Chris Bell is now located where he has always been: in the vanguard of the overturn of Republicanism in Texas.

Well fought.


Anonymous said...

So losing by a 57 - 43 is good news?

Hal said...

Anon, when you can't win outright, isn't it also a win if the numbers show a trend toward a possible win in the near future?

This is what we must satisfy ourselves with and work on this trend some more.

SL Man said...

So who do think the Democrats will look to run for seats during next election for SD 22. I assume Nick Lampson will have moved to a new address to run for another office in another county or district.

Hal said...

Who knows? Maybe they'll bring in an unknown Senate staffer with a military record and no promise of any kind of important committee membership.

That seems to be the winning recipe in CD 22.