Monday, January 02, 2012

Election 2012 Begins Tomorrow

The only things you hear on the news, besides the latest gaffe by Rick Perry that is, is who is going to win the Iowa Caucus which officially kicks off tomorrow evening. And with that, Election 2012 is officially here.

The Iowa Caucus is just about the strangest thing there is not only because of the process but because Iowa, apparently, does not represent the cross section of American thoughts and politics. It is a really odd state. Results in Iowa practically never reflect national trends and that seems to be the case this year.

Feature a state caucus that threatens to name Ron Paul as either the winner or the one who comes in 2nd (a good sign for Iowa, as opposed to practically everywhere else). Still, I expect Dr. Paul’s numbers to go as polled.

Paul’s following, a Libertarian-leaning group, is exceptionally loyal because they are so doctrinaire – as Paul is. They are not persuadable. So don’t count them in as part of the 41% of potential caucus-goers who say that they could change their minds when they are at the caucus.

At that rate, 41% decided, but changeable, and 49% undecided at this point, the Iowa Caucus is truly anyone’s to win.

My best guess is that Mitt Romney will pull it off with 40 plus per cent simply because of the super PAC dollars being poured into Iowa, immersing the media markets with anti-Newt ads. That and enough Iowans will finally be persuaded that Romney has the best chance to put up a fight to challenge the Goliath that will become the Obama campaign.

Paul will get his 22%. The polls are consistent from week to week and, frankly, you either love Ron Paul or hate him (or he scares the bejesus out of you).

Santorum will come in 3rd with numbers in the high teens. Evangelicals love Rick Santorum and while there is a greater than the 24% (on a national average) proportion of evangelical voters in Iowa, they are going to split their vote. Santorum will get the lion’s share.

Then in the low teens will be Perry and Newt. It still amazes me that there are Iowans who are still considering Rick Perry as a viable candidate.

Spread the rest of the votes out there in the very low sub 10% among the rest. There will be lots of people crossing the room away from the gangs with the low numbers.

So that’s my best guess, but with this caveat – it’s Iowa.

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