Now while the poll did not sample whether the opinion was based on the flavor of their religion, this number – 22% - is almost exactly the same number that represents the Rightwing Evangelical subdivision of the Republican Party.
This number is also a fairly steady number, not having changed significantly since
first asked this question in 1967. As a matter of fact, of the nine characteristics that Gallup polled on (black, woman, Hispanic, etc.) six groups scored lower in terms of likelihood one would withhold their vote, and two groups scored higher. Gallup
The characteristics that are less popular than being Mormon? Gays/Lesbians and Atheists.
Now the question I would have is this: if the only choice in a presidential election was between a Mormon and a left of center black man, would any of these 22% vote for the black man? My guess is that they won’t do that either.
The result is, of course, fewer votes for the Mormon, and no change for the black man.
So given that, what happens to the Republican primary voter who bases his/her vote on the likelihood that this candidate will beat Barack Obama in 2012? If they are assured that nearly a quarter of them will not vote if the nominee is a Mormon, how likely are they to vote for the Mormon?
Now in truth this should not even be at issue in a political campaign, yet even now, in the 21st century the issue persists because of deeply held beliefs that being a Mormon is not synonymous with being a Christian. But as long as those beliefs persist I think it is more likely that a black undocumented Kenyan will be elected president before a Mormon will even get a chance.