Friday, January 11, 2008

Do We Trust the Polls Any More or Was That Just New Hampshire?

OK, it seems I cannot get out of the rut of consulting the latest polls when I start to wonder what comes next. What comes next is the Michigan Primary on Tuesday, January 15th. The problem is, in Michigan Hillary Clinton is alone among the top tier candidates on the primary ballot. Again, it was polling done early on that gave the state to Hillary. Opposing her on the Michigan Primary will be Kucinnich, Biden (who has dropped out) and Gravel.

So I don’t think we need to worry about polls for another week or so. But in that, the question still remains, do we want to trust the polls any more or was that just a fluke in flukey New Hampshire? I just cannot believe that Hillary Clinton’s much-publicized emotional moment was the trick that turned over 10% of the New Hampshire voting populace to switch their votes to Clinton when they were going to vote for Obama.

I guess I have a rather conventional view of a New Hampshire voter: gritty, cantankerous, and above all, stubbbborn (with 4 b’s). So that’s why I have settled on my own theory - well I guess some others have it also - on why New Hampshire went to Hillary Clinton despite all the polls: no one likes to be predictable, but I think that is a main trait of the typical New Hampshire voter. So. . . yeah . . . I think it was the pollsters and their crystal balls who gave Hillary New Hampshire.

So rest assured, I think we will be able to play the polling game again.

No comments: