Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Election Defense Alliance: 3 Million Votes Stolen in the '06 Election

I first saw a mention of this announcement today on Brains and Eggs. It perked my interest because I have an interest in number crunching. It also perked my interest because this isn't being reported in the major media outlets.

The EDA or Election Defense Alliance is a nonprofit activist elections watchdog group that seeks “to insure that the process is honest, transparent, secure, verifiable, and worthy of the public trust”.

They have issued a press release, that curiously, has NOT been picked up by major media, that takes issue with election night exit poll results, and the fact that they were decidedly different from actual vote counts across the nation.

Same as ’04 in Ohio.

Before I get into the technical details, let me cut to the chase why this is important. Yes, Democrats still won, We cleaned their clocks, but what about the close races? If there was tampering, and the EDA gives an unqualified Yes vote on that, who actually won the close races? Was there a landslide victory in ’06?

I always thought that if there was a Republican victory in this election, we could be assured that the election was fixed. Polls indicated broad democratic support. But now, the EDA report is saying that there was a fix in, but it was not enough to surmount the massive Democratic vote.

Apparently Republicans wanted to win, were willing to tamper with the vote totals to do so, but were not willing to make it obvious. So they tweaked it ever so slightly, but, fortunately for us, not enough to allow them to retain their power.

Democrats, it seems are like professional women. If women professionals want to get anywhere in their careers, they not only have to outperform their male competitors, but they must do it by a considerable margin. Democrats, if they want a majority, need to consider winning by more than 50.1%. 55 – 60% is needed.

EDA results indicate that the Democratic victory in ’06 was a landslide.

OK, what did they find out exactly?

They heavily relied on the Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International (“Edison/Mitofsky”) exit polls that were taken on November 7, and reported on CNN at 7:07 pm, election night. This is a poll that samples 10,000 individuals and has a +1% margin of error. Their exit poll on election night showed that there was an 11.5% Democratic margin. Voters indicated that 55% had voted for a Democratic candidate for congress, and 43.5% had voted for a Republican candidate.

When the actual vote count came out on November 8th, the actual vote in the house races was 52.6% Democratic and 45% Republican, a 7.6% margin. That is well beyond the exit polls’ margin of error. EDA says that there is a 10,000 to 1 probability of the exit poll being that far off.

Well, one of the more valid reasons for not trusting exit polls is that Republicans are more circumspect in revealing to a complete stranger who they voted for. So the argument goes, exit polls over sample Democrats.

This leads to what they call “forced weighting”, where this Democratic over sampling is “corrected”. The forced weighting took place on November 8th, and lo and behold, the exit polls matched almost exactly the actual vote totals.


You would think. Here’s the thing that is really sinister here.

This year the exit poll contained a question that was supposed to be a validater. They asked who did you vote for President in ’04, Bush or Kerry? Respondents indicated their vote and their responses were this:

For Kerry 45%
For Bush 47%

This matched the actual ’04 vote totals. That election had a 2.8% margin in Bush’ favor.

But here’s what the EDA says about the forced weighting numbers for the same question:

“Yet for the same question—“For whom did you vote in the 2004 presidential election?"—the final, adjusted exit poll showed a margin of 43% Kerry to 49% Bush. This 6% margin in favor of Bush was a dramatic distortion of the 2.8% margin actually recorded in [the ’04 Election]”
Do you see it? Their validater question came in spot on to the actual ’04 vote, and the “forced weighing” numbers gave the Republicans a higher vote, and Democrats a lower vote, than is recorded in history. No force weighting was necessary. Democrats were not over sampled, and the 4% difference between reported totals and exit poll totals represents 3 million votes.

Here's the graphic from the EDA website. Compelling numbers.


They stole 3 million votes from the Democrats. We had a landslide.

The fix was in. Republicans or those who aided and abetted them shifted the numbers by somewhere between 4 and 6%.

But it wasn’t enough. Maybe it would have been enough had the election been held a month earlier, but all of the “outings” that took place last month probably influenced more voters to vote Democratic, or more Republican voters to stay home.

But what this means is that we are going to lose our democracy if we can’t find a way to prevent election thieves from stealing votes from the people. One thing I can think of right away is to impose severe penalties (public beheading is not out of the question) on vote cyberthieves. Another thing I can think of is to take back the elections process, nationalize it and any company that wants to sell voting machines and vote counting services.

I’ll conclude this posting with a couple of YouTube movies that I found while surfing the web looking into this. The first is a trailer from the documentary on electronic voting, The Right to Count http://www.righttocount.com/,

and the second one I found at a British website that is concerned about American elections. This is the sworn testimony of a computer programmer that elections can be rigged and probably are being rigged – they were investigating the ’04 Ohio vote results.

1 comment:

bev said...

Thank you so much Half Empty, wonderful, just wonderful. I so appreciate your analysis. Just wonderful.