And Funding the Kesha Rogers Campaign…

The Houston Chronicle has an interesting take on the Kesha Rogers victory in CD-22.

It even mentions this blogger’s plan to vote for the 2nd place winner in the Democratic primary: Under Vote.

But in the final analysis, it all comes down to Doug Blatt’s own opinion on the nature of the race and CD-22 voters:

“I am sorry to inform you that we lost. I am sorry that I was not able to get the word out more. The winner, Kesha Rogers, is already claiming on her web site that this means that Democrats in district 22 want to impeach the President. I can't believe that most people who voted for her, knew that she wants to do that. I do believe that most of them didn't do any research about the candidates before voting.”

In my county-by-county review of the vote, it was very clear to me that the voter was very uninformed, and many voters simply selected the person whose name appeared at the top of the ballot box. Clearly, there was such a high amount of voter ignorance in this race that the second highest vote-getter in the race was “none of the above.”

But more than a few that I have talked to have suggested that Kesha Rogers was a stalking horse candidate with Pete Olson’s campaign secretly supporting it. It even occurred to me as I was quizzed by a Princeton, NJ pollster who I would vote for if Olson and Rogers appeared on the ballot in November.

So I decided to take a look at the FEC campaign reports to see where the money to fund Rogers’ campaign came from.

In the one filing that I looked at, the one filed in January, 2010, here is what I found.

Rogers had 10 campaign contributions from 9 individuals totaling $3,750. No PAC money was reported.

While none of the supporters stood out, and none of the contributions were higher than $500, it was clear that one supporter was a big local backer. This guy donated $500 to the campaign which was immediately returned to his company for the use of office space at that company.

And over the past 7 years, the same guy has contributed over $25,000 to the Lyndon LaRouche for President Campaign or PAC.

A student made two contributions of $300 each, making him the biggest contributor.

The same guy has donated over $1,000 to the Lyndon LaRouche campaign in 2004.

Some unemployed guy living in Las Vegas gave Rogers $500. The same guy has donated $11,500 to the LaRouche campaign over the past 3 years, $500 to the Hillary Clinton campaign, and $500 each to the three LaRouche Youth candidates running for Congress this year. Rogers was the only one of the three to win. Small wonder, the other two ran against Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank.

Actor Robert Beltran, who played Raoul in the 1981 cult classic “Eating Raoul” gave Rogers $500. He has also donated to the Howard Dean campaign and to the LaRouche campaign in 2003 and 2004 ($1000 each time).

By far the biggest honcho who contributed to Rogers’ campaign was the president of a document conversion company that is headquartered in Leesburg, Virginia (a city also known for being the hometown of LaRouchePAC). Since 1999 he has given over $27,000 to LaRouche or ones like Rogers who run under the LaRouche banner.

I could go on but you do see where this is leading, don’t you? If Pete Olson was behind Kesha Rogers’ campaign, he cleverly did it through LaRouche supporters spread out over the country. Something that I doubt.

No, according to the FEC, Rogers took in $3,326 spent $1,315 and had $2011 on hand, as of January 26th, 2010. All of her funding, from what I could see, was from followers of Lyndon LaRouche (who sometimes, but not often, donated to True Democrats).

As a footnote, I decided to take a look at who were the money people behind Doug Blatt’s campaign. That one was easy because the single biggest contributor to Doug Blatt for Congress was Doug Blatt. His wife and parents came in 2nd and 3rd. Oh, and one In Kind donation from the Texas Democratic Party for access to the Voter Activation Network.

Neither Freddie or Kesha took advantage of the TDP voter database, preferring to rely on general voter ignorance and some cosmic miracle in the game of what I call "Ballot Position Roulette."

Blatt was, after all, the only True Democrat running.

Massa: Resigning in Style

What is the difference between a Democratic office holder getting caught acting inappropriately and a Republican office holder doing the same thing?

Congressman Eric Massa (D – New York) illustrates the difference well.

When you are guilty, you admit it and you resign. Especially if you don’t want to be under the national binocular microscope having everything in your life put under close public scrutiny.

I truly wonder who among us is without sin.

Jesus had that one dead right.

But in the toxic environment that is our nation’s capitol, if you don’t want to be scrutinized for your personal flaws, either don’t run for office or don’t make public blunders.

Blunders like having a “wide stance” in airport restrooms or having the inconvenience of having you name and phone number in a notorious DC madam’s “book of tricks.”

Massa says he is “flawed.” Yes, people are. Massa is a person. However, to make my point clear, a person’s flaws are not an issue unless they also reveal raw hypocrisy.

Like the raw hypocrisy of David Vitter and Larry Craig. Two Republicans with “character flaws” who have been given a free ride by their colleagues.

David Vitter, a known adulterer and user of the services of prostitutes was a vocal opponent of ACORN after the group was set up by a junior “reporter” and a young woman posing as a prostitute. Vitter’s vocal opposition to ACORN and a voice urging the withdrawal of federal funds for ACORN was at the vanguard in the GOP attack machine against this group.

David Vitter, essentially for prostitution before he was against it.

David Vitter. A hypocrite who needs to resign from office, especially now that the Ethics Committee, given new teeth by Democrats, no less, won’t give him the free pass that he got when the Republicans were in power.

Larry Craig, a guy who sets my “gaydar” alert to strong positive, voted for a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, voted no to adding sexual orientation to the federal hate crime bill, and voted no on a bill to forbid discrimination in the workplace because of sexual orientation. Larry Craig is himself gay.

Making him a hypocrite of the first order.

These two characters can’t hold a candle to Eric Massa. To whatever he did, and I really don’t care what, he freely admits his guilt. Massa demonstrated today how this is done. With a touch of class. DC will suffer in his absence.

The Face of the Teabaggers

Ever wonder why the only people you see at Teabagger rallies are old angry white people? Whatever happened to kindly and benevolent old geezers like Grandpa Walton?

Or what about Grandpappy Amos?

Sort of makes you nostalgic for a bygone time when old people were maybe a little crusty but benevolent beings who never had a bone to pick with anyone except for the occasional young scamp who ran through their vegetable garden.

But these days, the face of old people that keeps turning up at Teabagger rallies look like this guy.

A real class act, huh?

And In the Runoffs . . .

Yes, we do have some elections that are yet to be decided. Even in the traditionally ho-hum Democratic primary.

From top to bottom here they are.

In CD-14 where we had a 3-way race to challenge Ron Paul in the Fall, it looks like Robert Pruett got the bulk of the votes at 41.59% with his chief opponent, Winston Cochran coming in second with 31.07% of the vote.

Jeff “I’m Really a Republican” Cherry came in dead last, proving that he was more of a fly in the ointment than a viable candidate. So now Pruett will face Cochran in the runoff.

I still think Pruett Can Do It.

In HD 76, incumbent Norma Chavez will have a runoff election with Naomi Gonzalez. Now there’s a race to watch. One wonders if voters had a problem with name recognition, or will have it once Tony San Roman is no longer on the ballot with them.

Speaking of runoffs, John Healey will have to face Nina Schaefer in a runoff election as no one could attain 50% plus 1. So we still have a chance that Healey will be re-elected if he beats Schaefer in the Get Out The Vote effort.

Congratulations Rep!

Do us proud in Austin!

Congratulations Mr. Chairman

Let's hear it for the 29th prime number! One-Oh-One! One-Oh-One! One-Oh-One! One-Oh-One!

How to Cast a Vote for Under Vote

What a turn of events. It’s almost like 2006 when in the CD-22 race there was no Republican on the ballot, and Nick Lampson won against a write-in candidate. This time there will be no Democrat on the ballot for CD-22 this November.

Because true to my most dismal of predictions, Kesha Rogers, follower of the right (no . . .left, no . . . right) wingnut Lyndon LaRouche, narrowly edged her Libertarian opponent and her True Democrat opponent.

What she, and her two opponents, lacked in name recognition Rogers made up for in terms of ballot position.

In Harris County, where she came in 2nd place at the end of Election Night, she came in second to Doug Blatt. Who came in third? Someone called Under Vote.

Then came Freddie Wieder.

In Fort Bend County, where she first on the ballot, Kesha Rogers won. Coming in second place was that other guy, Under Vote. Then came Doug Blatt, then Freddie.

In Galveston County, where she was second on the ballot, Kesha Rogers came in second. Under Vote was edged by Doug Blatt by one percent.

Who won in Galveston County? Freddie Wieder.

Freddie had the honor of being in the top position on the Galveston County Ballot.

In Brazoria County? Kesha Rogers garnered sixty-one percent of the votes there, followed by Under Vote, then Doug Blatt, then Freddie.

I now know that Kesha Rogers had the number one position on the ballot in Brazoria County. Under Vote came in second place, edging Doug Blatt by 0.1%, then Freddie.

Kudos, to Brazoria County voters, though. Freddie Wieder actually had the second place spot on their ballot, but Brazoria County voters bucked the trend and more of them voted for the guy in the third spot than second on the ballot.

Good for you, good for you.

Now, when you do the numbers from the county websites, not the Texas Secretary of State, whose numbers are slightly different, what you see is that Kesha Rogers won the primary, but in second place was none other than Under Vote. Under Vote beat Doug Blatt by almost a thousand votes.

So come Election Day 2010 Democratic voters will be asked either to vote for a follower of Lyndon LaRouche who is calling on the impeachment of President Barack Obama, or to vote for the Republican incumbent Pete Olson, who would call for the impeachment of Barack Obama if he was as loony tunes crazy as his opponent.

Because I doubt that Democrats are going to be nutty enough to submit a write-in candidate to split the vote of Democratic voters, some of whom who will vote for Kesha Rogers simply because she has a D next to her name.

So I have an alternative.

Instead of voting for Kesha Rogers in November, and instead of going completely crazy and voting for Pete Olson in November, Democrats can vote for that guy who came in second in the Democratic primary.

Cast your vote for Under Vote.

Here’s how you do it. After getting to the first screen on that Dial-A-Vote voting machine we have here, you click the button when the cursor is over the box for Straight Democratic Ticket. Then you go back to the list of candidates and where you can vote for them individually and you emphasize your vote for Kesha Rogers by clicking on the red-filled square next to her name.

De-selecting that vote.

By doing that you cast your vote for the second-place winner of the Democratic Primary in CD-22.

Under Vote.

Pete Olson: Highway Hypocrite

So I got this email message from the Democratic Party today. Here is how it began:

Hal --

Are you represented in Congress by a Highway Hypocrite?

Highway Hypocrites voted against the Recovery Act and spent the last year attacking it -- while praising it in letters requesting funds and press releases touting projects in their districts.

We've identified 118 Republican senators and representatives guilty of highway hypocrisy. But we know there are more.

Click here to find out if you're represented by a Highway Hypocrite -- and help us expose others.

Now sometimes I can be a little dense, especially when it comes to my congressman, Pete Olson. I expect so little from him that I don’t really add one and one when I see in the news – well the news I watch anyway – how all over the place Republicans who voted against the Recovery Act are taking credit for bringing stimulus money to their districts.

So when I clicked on the link and entered the information the website reported that Olson represented me (that’s a laugh) and that he voted against the Recovery Act. Nothing new there. But I looked and looked and couldn’t see if he was on their list of 118 hypocrites.

Then I realized that he is a highway hypocrite. And I even posted a blog piece about it last month.

Like I say, sometimes I can be a little dense.

So yes, Pete Olson is a highway hypocrite, and yes, I googled it and he is on the list. Pete Olson voted No on the Recovery Act and then came to the aid of Democratic County Commissioner Richard Morrison in making a request for Recovery Act money to fund a road widening project.

A request that was appropriately enough rejected.

Texas only received two grants out of that pool of money, both of them in the Democratic Free State of Dallas.

Pete Olson: Highway Hypocrite.

Help. Republicans Keep Robo-Calling Me

Today I saw the ominous blink of my voicemail light again announcing that I had received another message.

I think it blinks ominously, somehow, when the message it holds is a Robo-call from some Republican or another.

Today it was from Rick Forlano and it instantly peaked my interest because he listed in order, 3 endorsements. Two from two local newspapers, and the third from Sheriff Milton Wright no less.

Now I can understand him wanting to tout the newspaper endorsements but given what we read in the Fort Bend Herald, one of his endorsing newspapers, I wondered whether Forlano was just inviting not just a little bit of trouble.

Wright has become something of a controversial figure, it seems, in his endorsements. Some would say downright wacky.

Anyway, for your edification, I am going to share Forlanos’s robo message in this You Tube presentation.

Did You Ever See a Racist in Fort Bend County?

I did.

Frankly they are all over the place here, and yes, racism crosses party lines. But it is insidious, you see, because racism has been a part of our society since the story of Cain and Abel was twisted into a race war.

I was raised in a country, you see, that let young school children form their opinions on African-Americans by reading this book.

I was raised in a country, you see, that sold orange marmalade with advertisement artwork that looked like this.

I was raised in a country, you see, that had this kind of advertising and this kind of imagery on the outside of a box of pancake mix for decades.

I was raised in a country, you see, that published magazines with full page ads having content just like this.

I was raised next to people who think that this kind of imagery of the President of the United States is proper.
And yes, I now live in an area where a DEMOCRATIC candidate for State Representative in HD 27 thinks that this is a perfectly proper rendering of her African-American opponent.

You know that is racist imagery, but Dora Olivo doesn’t. She, like me, was raised in a country that inundated its citizens with this kind of racist tripe through media and advertising. I learned to hate these racist messages.

Dora Olivo hasn’t because she continues to use ones like them to insert the kind of subtle racist messaging that I had hoped was a thing of the past.

Dora Olivo turns racism to her advantage in an eleventh hour hit piece on her African-American opponent, and that is deplorable.

This makes Olivo, herself, a racist. A racist who doesn’t know she’s a racist.

But she sure as H-E double hockey sticks should.

Early Vote Totals Are Higher Than in 2006

Now that Early Voting for the March 2nd primaries is over, it looks like voter interest remains elevated. Not, obviously, as high as it was in 2008 where records were set up and down the state, but compared to the last mid-term primary election in 2006, yes, voter interest is high.

The Houston Chronicle has the Harris County figures here, but I will summarize the results of my number crunching in Fort Bend County.

In Harris County the Chronicle is reporting a high turnout for the mid-term primary election with 84,018 early vote ballots cast this year as compared to 33,362 cast in the previous mid-term election in 2006.

The Chronicle also breaks down early voter totals by party: 33,771 Democratic voters showed up to early vote compared to 50,250 Republican voters.

But while the Chronicle breaks down the 2010 Early Vote numbers by party, they didn’t compare those numbers to 2006 numbers by party.

Comparing these numbers to those in the area of my more immediate concern, neighboring Fort Bend County, we are seeing a similar overall trend, but truly startling numbers in the Democratic Primary early vote.

In Fort Bend County a total of 16,520 voters early voted in the past two weeks. This is an increase over 2006 where a total of 10,721 voters cast their ballots in the gubernatorial primary election.

Now at a 54% increase over 2006 early vote numbers this isn’t the 150% increase in total early voter turnout seen in Harris County, but it still is rather significant.

But broken down by party the early vote totals comparison between the 2006 and 2010 elections are far more telling.

In 2006, 1619 Democratic party early votes were cast in Fort Bend County. In 2010 the total Democratic early votes cast number 5114 – a 216% increase. And while far more numerous Republican voters early voted this year, at 11,406 ballots cast, that is only a 25% increase over the 9102 Republican early vote ballots in 2006.

In other words, interest is higher in this year’s primary election across the board, but among Democratic voters in Fort Bend County, interest has skyrocketed.

The trouble is, it is still unclear what this all means, but here is what I hope it all means. Democrats are still fighting for Change, not only change in the way the state and local governments behave, but also change in the way the Democratic Party and some of its elected officials behave.

One dares to hope.

Fort Bend County Democratic Party Chair Agrees to Another Polling Location Change

Shades of 2008.

In 2008 the Elections Office in Republican-dominated Fort Bend County government pulled a fast one by changing the Election Day polling locations of two Democratic-dominated precincts.

I mentioned it in this piece back then.

Back then the county Elections Office changed the polling locations of Precincts 2123 and 1114, both of them strong Democratic precincts. But they made the mistake of announcing the change 3 weeks before Election Day.

I remember it well. My Democratic Club printed and mailed at its expense notification of the polling location change to each and every resident of the affected area.

At the same time we railed at each other why our County Chair, Elaine Bishop, would allow that to happen. Isn’t she supposed to protect the votes of each and every Democrat in Fort Bend County?

And now it has happened again.

Only this time the Elections Office waited until the last minute.

They do learn.

The polling location for Democratic majority precinct 1076 has been changed at the last minute. And obviously, with the assent of our Party Chair.

Precinct 1076 used to vote at Holy Cross Episcopal Church near just outside of River Park West. It has now been moved down the freeway to River Pointe Community Church on Ransom Road. Here is the precinct map.

Yes, two separate communities joined by one two-lane road.

So now, even if a Precinct 1076 voter looks on their voter registration card to remind themselves of where they go and vote, that address will be wrong. But usually voters don’t even look it up, they just go where they always go.

We can only hope that enough voters do show up at the polls and vote for Change in Fort Bend County.

Vote for Steve Brown for Fort Bend County Democratic Chair.

Oh, did I mention what was Elaine Bishop's reaction to my Democratic Club's action in response to her inaction? Were we thanked? Appreciated? Not on your life.

She criticized the group for meddling.

I am not kidding.

What Americans Want

That title is a little loaded because I have no idea what Americans want anymore. In 2008 I was pretty sure that Americans wanted Change. And that Americans wanted comprehensive healthcare reform.

Now I’m not so sure.

Here is why.

Today’s Healthcare summit at the Blair House in DC pretty much went over like the proverbial lead balloon that we all were expecting. Republicans were adamant that they wanted to start all over even with the House and Senate versions of the bill both passed.

And now Democrats are once again talking about passing a bill on a 51-vote majority.

Reconciliation.

Here are some snippets of this conversation gleaned from MSNBC:

Harry Reid: “No one has talked about reconciliation but that's what you folks have talked about ever since that came out, as if it's something that has never been done before. Now, we as leaders here, the Speaker and I, have not talked about doing reconciliation as the only way out of all this. Of course it's not the only way out. But remember, since 1981 reconciliation has been used 21 times.”

Obama: “I do think [the American people] want a vote on how we're going to move this forward … A majority vote makes sense.”

Now I have to wonder about that last statement.

Because according to a Gallup poll just released, 52% of Americans oppose the use of reconciliation to pass healthcare reform.

From RTT News:

“According to the poll, which surveyed 1,009 adults on February 23, 52% of Americans oppose using reconciliation to pass health care reform compared to 39% who support it.”

Now does this mean a majority of Americans now don’t want healthcare reform? Because I read the news and it appears that the only path to passing healthcare reform any time soon is reconciliation.

But apparently, that’s not true.

According to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll, 58% of all Americans would be disappointed or even angry if healthcare reform isn’t passed this year.

That’s the poll I wanted to look at. It’s here.

So bottom line, what do Americans want? Apparently they want healthcare reform, but they want the Republicans to give it to them also.

And that doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in H-E-double hockey sticks of happening.

A DA Three-Fer

Now every once in awhile I get an e-mail message forwarded to me that originates from one Teabagger or another, but that is because I asked my cousin, who gets them nearly every day to forward them to me.

I like to see what the Dark Side is saying without having to venture there and wade through the mis-spellings, ALL CAPS TEXT and exclamation points (honestly these people write like Glenn Beck talks).

But what irritates me is that come election time my mailbox gets inundated with those color glossy cardstock campaign cards from Republican candidates.

To my knowledge, I have never given my mailing address to a single Republican so I have no idea how I wound up on their list. But they all send me their campaign paraphernalia.

But today it was unreal.

I received four pieces, all of them the same size (6 by 11) mailers, and 100% of them coming from a Republican DA candidate. One each from Healey and Raymond, and two different ones from Nina Schaefer.

It was just unreal that they were all received on the exact same day. What are the chances of that happening?

Here’s a photograph of them.

Of the three, Healey’s is the tamest. His attacks consist entirely of the lack of experience of one his two opponents (Raymond) and that the other is “Weak on Crime” ostensibly because she doesn’t prosecute criminals, she defends them.

Raymond devotes most of his ink attacking Healey and cites the Fort Bend Herald Coaster’s call for his replacement, quotes a juror (and taxpayer), and cites a Texas Ethics Commission opinion on Healey’s “illegal campaign activities.” His sole criticism of Schaefer is that she is TOO LIBERAL for Fort Bend County.

Obviously, he is not worried about Nina Shaefer.

Schaefer, on the other hand trumps both candidates by sending out not one mailer but two. In one she attacks Healey for his many legal and political sins (as I recall Healey’s assistant, Mike Elliott, was the sinner most of the time). In the other she fires shots at both Healey and Raymond, bringing up Raymond’s association with Joey Sula, the guy who bilked Fort Bend County political consultant Karen Pearson out of 500 large.

Pearson, as it turns out, managed DA Healey’s campaigns in the past.

Reading all of this just assaults the senses a little bit because one of these rascals is going to be elected (or re-elected) to District Attorney because no Democrat would file in the race.

So, what the heck, since Richard Raymond says Nina Schaefer is too liberal for Fort Bend, and since Nina Schaefer definitely pulled on her punch in her hit piece, what the heck. If you vote in the Republican primary you should probably put the red color in the box next to Schaefer’s name when you vote.

Support Your Public Schools: Take a TAKS Test

I love irony.

Yesterday I posted a brief video of former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle commenting on high stakes testing in Texas’s education system.

According to Ronnie Earle, “we do too much testing and not enough teaching.”

Yes we do. But more than that it is just amazing what gets shoved aside when a TAKS test is administered in Texas.

Feature this. The Texas School Public Relations Association, an organization dedicated to “promoting public schools through effective communications” has announced that next week, March 1st through 5th is “Texas Public Schools Week.” And for $60 you can download a kit to help you celebrate Public Schools Week.

But then, if you go over to the local online newspaper Fort Bend Now, you see that Fort Bend ISD is actually postponing celebration of Texas Public Schools Week until the 2nd week in March.

Now I don’t know what is more ironical. That Fort Bend ISD is postponing a celebration of itself because it will be spending a day that week putting thousands of students through what will be a grueling all-day English Language Arts TAKS test, demonstrating one more time that TAKS testing is truly the primary concern of education administrators. Or that the state organization, whose prime concern is to promote education through effective communication was either unaware that March 3rd is a TAKS test day, or unaware of the importance that TAKS tests take in school districts, to the exclusion of everything else, including promoting themselves.

All I know is that in either case, the irony is exquisite.

Kesha Rogers On You Tube – Getting the Word Out

Nutty LaRouche Democrat Kesha Rogers is doing her very best to get herself out into the public view any way she can. Amazingly, Fort Bend Now is currently featuring a video of her on their website.

She is doing a bang-up job broadcasting to Democrats of TX-22 how much she wants to impeach President Barack Obama – although she isn’t altogether clear what heinous offenses President Obama has committed to warrant impeachment.

I guess we don’t have to worry about that, she’ll think up stuff later just like Bart Starr did.

The really funny thing about this, though, is that apparently she thinks that Democratic primary voters are also enraged at Barack Obama and will cast their primary vote for her over say, Doug Blatt, the only real Democrat on the CD-22 ballot. So she is actually proudly announcing this very strange anti-Democratic demand where ever and whenever she can.

Which seems strange because she has enviable ballot positions in Fort Bend and Harris Counties – the two populous counties within CD-22 boundaries. The theory goes that a completely ignorant Democratic primary voter, not knowing any of the candidates or their positions, would opt for the first one on the list.

Or the second.

But no, Kesha Rogers is getting herself out there informing the uninformed about how truly wacky her ideas are.

So I thought I would help out.

Here is Kesha’s video as seen at Fort Bend Now.



Go, Kesha, go.

Ronnie Earle On High Stakes Testing In Texas

I shot some video of Ronnie Earle speaking to a roomful of Democratic activists last weekend. He has two hot button issues that I’d like to see discussed more in the Texas political conversation: Tax Structure and Education.

Today I’d like to share Ronnie Earle’s take on high stakes testing of our school children in Texas. He has an interesting view that most people don’t bring up very often. Doing poorly on these tests is stigmatizing.



Yes, Earle needs to get over his performance in Algebra just like Texas needs to get over over-testing its children. Testing them not to assess how much they learn, but to figure out which teacher they need to fire.

Fun With Turnout Projections: 2nd Attempt

Last week with one day early voting turnout totals I boldly, and in retrospect, foolhardily attempted to make a voter turnout prediction based on a comparison to the 2008 primary turnout compared to the turnout on day one of early voting.

Remember the prediction? Based on that one day and setting up a simple proportion I came up with the remarkable number of 13,573 Democratic voters, or roughly 19% of the turnout when it was still undecided who would be the Democratic nominee for President.

Then I compared that number to the 2006 mid-term primary election turnout, which saw 6,550 Democratic voters go to the polls. And I predicted that the actual turnout would be somewhere between those numbers.

Well, I have a slight revision based on another tweak of the data.

Now with 7 full days of early voting results in I have run the same proportion calculation for each day’s cumulative totals. Each day, except for yesterday, the predicted turnout decreased. One day by as much as 13%. Here is the daily analysis showing how the prediction changed from one day to the next.

It varies a bit, and Monday was the only day to have an actual gain over the previous day, a no-brainer because that was a figure for Sunday and none of the polls in churches were open. So with today’s numbers the predicted turnout is 9,037 Democratic voters.

But we have 4 more days in the early vote, so I went ahead and calculated the average daily decrease over all 7 days (-7.3%) and applied that to the next 4 days.

Know what I got as a final vote turnout prediction for the 2010 Democratic primary?

6,671 voters.

Spooky, huh?

No the really spooky thing is that in the contested races, if this turnout holds, 3,336 voters will decide the fate of the Fort Bend County Democratic Party for the next 4 years, at a time when Democratic voters will finally attain majority status in this county.

That is 4.7% of the voters who called themselves Democrats in 2008.

Yikes.

Top Ten Reasons to Vote For Elaine Bishop For Party Chair

You’ve probably seen Juanita Jean’s rant over at the World’s Most Dangerous Beauty Salon, Inc. on how Elaine Bishop in her push card laughably takes credit for any and all things good that has happened to Democrats recently. Her list of ten things the County Chair has accomplished is a magnificent thing. I could tell she had just as good a time assembling that list as I had reading it.

(I even added one of my own in the comments)

But I can’t let this thing go even though Juanita did such a marvelous job because you rarely get a pushcard that completely drips with prevarications and bald-faced exaggerations like Elaine Bishop’s.

I got one too, you see.

So without further ado, and with apologies (again) to David Letterman, here are the Top Ten Reasons to Vote for Elaine Bishop for County Chair.

10. She knows how to mis-spell candidate’s names really, really well. Her own name is mis-spelled on the ballot. Her real name is Elena.

9. When the rubber hits the road during election time, Elaine is busy organizing Get Out The Vote activities and calling voters – in Ohio.

8. We don’t need a “Can Do” Chair like Steve Brown, not when we have been served all these years by a “Can Don’t” Party Chair.

7. Thrift. Elaine Bishop is saving Fort Bend County thousands of dollars by approving their plan to let a Republican-dominated local government and the GOP operate Democratic Primaries.

6. Synergy. Elaine Bishop maintains close contact with Democratic Clubs all around the county and works tirelessly to derail any and all work they do helping to elect Democrats in Fort Bend County.

5. Inertia. When it comes to not moving a millimeter despite all indications that Democrats are on the verge of being the majority voters here, Elaine Bishop has gotten it down pat. Isaac Newton would be proud.

4. Credit Taking. The Chair is an expert at tooting her own horn by taking credit for the labors of others. Barack Obama doesn’t know this, but The Chair is personally responsible for his historic election in 2008. Ask Elaine.

3. Recruitment. Under her leadership 81 precinct chair positions are vacant in Fort Bend County and 7 of these vacant chairs are actually Voter Registrars. Don’t believe me? It’s here.

2. Communication Skills. With one hand on the pulse of Fort Bend County Democratic voters and the other hand on her cell phone, Elaine Bishop is skilled in not returning phone calls.

And the Number One reason to vote for Elaine Bishop for County Chair?

1. Experience and Reliability. Elaine Bishop has the most experience in not getting anything done and we can rely on that to continue when we re-elect her.

For Lieutenant Governor: Ronnie Earle

So since I early voted already I thought I would share the fact that for Lieutenant Governor I made former prosecutor Ronnie Earle my choice to run against Lieutenant Governor David Deworst this fall (I know how to spell his name correctly, I just choose not to).

I know it’s not what other lefty bloggers are doing. They are opting for the former VP of the AFL-CIO Linda Chavez-Thompson. Why they do this escapes me. The idea, I thought, of primaries was not only to choose the best candidate but also to choose the one who is more likely to win in November. Chavez-Thompson’s hyphenated name is not recognized beyond a few, especially here in union-less Texas.

Ronnie Earle, my choice, has a name that is not only recognized statewide, but nationally. He is famously noted as the point man that got Tom DeLay to pose for this mug shot, an act that eventually led to his resignation from the US Congress, a place that he ran like an iron fist. An act that eventually led to his brief stint on “Dancing With the Stars” where he demonstrated how he could nearly drop his dance partner on her keester.

And because he demonstrated this can-do approach to criminal behavior among politicians, Ronnie Earle is the guy who can bring needed change to the way the state of Texas does its business, or should I say, doesn’t do its business.

For instance, Earle is correct in his assessment that Texas’ tax structure is designed to favor the rich, who pay no taxes. Texas, Earle says, runs on the backs of the middle class. A class that he correctly believes is slowly but surely disappearing in Texas. So following this policy is fiscal suicide in the long term.

And yes, I heard Ronnie Earle speak yesterday at a Democratic Party workshop that was held in Bastrop, Texas. He came in toward the end of the workshop and spoke for a couple of minutes, and then took questions.

And yes, I got it on video. I am going to cherry pick a few clips and post them over the next couple of weeks. The first one is a response to a commenter in the audience who also lived in former Congressman Tom DeLay’s district.

Here was the comment:

“We’re from Fort Bend, we want to thank you because your work in Austin led us to getting rid of a scourge for Fort Bend County, Tom DeLay, and we . . . (applause and whoops).”

Here is what Ronnie Earle, who finds himself free of the fetters of office now and can now speak bluntly of his former case.




Even though I had already voted for Earle, I just have to say that anyone who says that going to the penitentiary wouldn’t be as embarrassing to DeLay than “Dancing With the Stars” has my vote.