Sunday, September 09, 2012

Counting My Chickens

So, OK, 538 Dot Com has all but coronated President Obama for a 2nd term.
With a post-convention bounce of 3 or 4 percent, with a reflective drop in the GOP, we now see a way to victory in the Executive Branch. Or at least a 79.8% chance at a victory.
Unless, of course, someone puts a funny helmet on Barack’s head and makes him look ridiculous like they did for Dukakis when they made him look like he was driving a tank.
The strategy of gathering voters in blocs of interest seems to be working. Republicans can’t compete on this level and the time is rapidly coming to a close for when they can define the debate.
Truth to tell, this call is a better projection than this time 4 years ago, and with the shenanigans in Ohio and Florida being called out onto the carpet by vigilant Democrats, it looks like the election squeaker that we were all expecting, with 5 percent of the votes stolen by the GOP in various states won’t happen.
And no, I’m not declaring victory and going on vacation. There is still work to do, especially in local elections.
In the Senate, as far as Texas goes, Paul Sadler is not  being given much of a chance against TEA Partier Ted Cruz. The TEA Party still runs strong here and has all but taken over the Republican Party of Texas. And my local congressional district has a beltway suit dweeve running against a tin-foil-hat so-called Democrat who is calling for Obama’s impeachment for being, well, for being a puppet of Queen Elizabeth.
So in congress I am basically sitting in the stands waiting to find out whether we will be able to do business in the next two years in DC, or  whether we can expect more of the same.
In the House, we need a net 25 seat gain to take back the majority and the Speakership. And with some of these old geezers stepping all over themselves recently making outrageous biological claims about women’s metabolic processes, it seems to me that this task is easier than it appeared to be even since July.
So I am cautiously optimistic that we can remove some TEA Partiers who drove Moodys to downgrade the good faith and credit of the United States, as well as a couple of others.
The Senate though is another thing. Apparently everyone seems to think that there are 7 toss-up seats in the Senate, and four of them are open. Only three are currently held by an incumbent.  60, however, is the magic number in the Senate so if there is a continued stalemate it will be in the Senate.
So in the most optimistic of terms, all we Democrats can expect is continued roadblocks in the Senate, perhaps moderated by the fact that Republican Senators will no longer have on their agenda the opposition to another term for President Obama.
Whatever that means. Truth to tell, it probably doesn’t mean all that much.

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