Friday, October 26, 2012

Poll Pallooza

I keep watching the polls as we go down to the final days before Election Day. Starting tomorrow more states than ever will have opened their Early Voting polls and I hear that people are going to be early voting in more numbers than ever.
Barack Obama is the first US president in history to early vote.
And now they even have exit polls from early voting.
But early voters have been typically motivated voters and not ones who go to the polls early out of convenience – the whole reason for early voting in the beginning.
But where you have to start paying attention is at the local polling in the swing states because nationally it is either a toss-up or a Romney win. It could just be that we will have another election victory at the Electoral College.
Here are the national polls as of today:
  • Gallup: Romney in +5
  • Rassmussen: Romney in +3
  • ABC/WaPo: Romney in +1
  • IBD/TIPP: Obama in +2
In the popular vote, advantage goes to Romney.
But the swing state polls are probably more important to watch now because the first one to get to 270 electoral votes gets the Oval Office no matter what the popular vote looks like.
Just ask Al Gore or Thomas Dewey about winning a popular vote, but losing the election.
  • Ohio: Obama at +4, +2 and +2.
  • Colorado: Obama +1
  • Iowa: +4
  • Nevada: +3
  • New Hampshire: +1
Romney apparently has Florida and North Carolina.
Now I’ve seen the scenarios, even ones where the election is thrown to the House. But the thing I am now wondering about is whether the Electoral College will pick our next president this time – as it does most every time, but this time Obama may not get the popular vote. I am steeling myself for this possibility but in the end, what does it matter. Republicans will no longer have to worry about Obama getting another term in office. Maybe only then will they be able to stop all of their nonsense and get back to work getting our country back on its economic feet.
Unless of course, they are truly as depraved as we all have come to suspect.

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