Thursday, November 01, 2012

538 Gonna Break 80

I usually tune in to Nate Silver’s blog on the New York Times to see how my president is doing in the polls. Nate Silver picked Barack Obama’s victory well within the margin for error in 2008 and I assmume he is still on his game this year.

I took heart with the fact that he had my president as a 83% certainty of winning the present election, but since his magnificent flop in his first debate with Romney, Obama’s chances went south faster than a Canadian Goose in January.
Soon we saw Barack Obama’s chances of retaking the White House fall below 80, then 70, then flirting with sub-60%. And with that came my thoughts of winning the Electoral College, but losing the popular vote.
Here's the heartening graphic from Nate Silver:

Well I still don’t think we are out of the woods yet as far as the popular vote, but today I took another look at Nate Silver’s blog, and noted that he has now rated the possibility of an Obama win back at 79% with a possible 300 electoral votes.
That is, verged on breaking 80 percent again.
As I said, we are not out of the woods yet, and have yet to see what happens in reaction to Governor Chris Christie’s apparent bus-thrusting of Romney’s chances. Especially given what we see in this interesting little statistic, that Mitt Romney has a fairly good chance of winning the popular vote as seen on this graphic, also from 538:

So I am uncharacteristically optimistic. I think the country just might pull out of the near-crisis of having a weather vane take the highest office in the land.
And who knows, maybe I have an 80 percent chance of getting enrolled in one of the plans offered by Obamacare in 2014. At that point, freedome will truly ring for yours truly:

UPDATE: Today (November 2nd) it broke 80. Today's projection is that President Obama has an 80.9% chance of getting 303 electoral votes.

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