Tuesday, June 22, 2010

White and Perry All Tied Up

Public Policy Polling has just released results from a poll conducted from June 19th to June 21st of 500 Texans on the Texas governor’s race. The results show that Bill White and Rick Perry are all tied up at 43% each. The error in the survey is plus or minus 4.4%.

Complete results can be viewed here.

Significantly, while 40% of respondents said that they voted for Barack Obama in 2008, 43% said that they would vote for Bill White in 2010, and 37% of respondents identified themselves as Democrats.

It is also apparent that Texas voters not only don’t want Perry to seek the nomination for President in 2012, there is some disaffection with him as a result of their perception that Perry is using the gubernatorial campaign as a springboard to gaining the presidency.

And summer has just begun.

My guess is that as Bill White surges ahead in the polls Rick Perry will have no choice but to consent to a debate sometime this fall.

A move that will serve to seal Rick Perry’s fate.


Anonymous said...

That's a fairly large variation for such a small sample size. Did they run a power analysis and effect size before seeking this small a sample?

Hal said...

An n=500 and an error of 4.4% seems reasonable to me anon. They over-sampled Republicans and old people. I suspect the error is more plus than minus.