Tuesday, August 07, 2007

New Gallup/USA Today Poll: It’ll Be Clinton vs. Giuliani

According to a poll released today, if voters went to the polls today to vote for President of the United States, they would be presented with a choice between Senator from New York Hillary R. Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

The poll was based on telephone interviews of 1,012 adults between August 3rd and 5th.

The top 3 Democratic contenders polled pretty much as they did even six months ago with Clinton at 48% (48% in February), Obama at 26% (23% in February) and Edwards at 12% (14% in February). And the voters were asked, given a choice between Clinton and Obama, who would you vote for in a primary? Voters opted for Clinton by 59% to Obama’s 36%. Voters thought Clinton would do a better job than Obama across the board in security issues.

Republicans opt for Rudy Giuliani by a smaller margin. Guiliani polled at 33% as opposed to 42% in February. That huge drop is probably the result of the unannounced announced candidacy of Fred Thompson whose initial numbers in March stood at 13%, where Giuliani’s numbers dropped to 34% but today polls at 21%. In third place is the floundering candidate John McCain, whose numbers fell from 25% in February to 16% today. If given a choice between two of the top three candidates, Giuliani fares better against McCain (62% to 33%) than he does against Thompson (55% to 38%).

It’s still early though and anything can happen including a Howard Dean-esque meltdown. What I am starting to believe is that there are a significant number of people in this country who will have no choice because neither of the candidates appeals to them. If nothing changes and these two are the contenders next November, I am predicting a huge Republican undervote in the presidential race, and lower Republican turnout figures across the country. After all, the Bushites will be asked to choose between a progressive Democratic woman and a centrist Republican man who likes to dress as a woman from time to time.

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